Student Population Forecast by Residence School Year 2024/25 – 2034/35 Report Austin Independent School District Submitted by: MGT JUNE 17, 2025 4320MW. G TKENNEDY C O N S U L TBLVD., I N G . CSUITE O M 200 TAMPA, FLORIDA 33609 850.445.4405 This page intentionally left blank. AUSTIN INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT| DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY SY 24-25 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ............................................................................... 1 KEY ITEMS IN THE DISTRICT-WIDE ANALYSIS: .................................................................. 2 1. METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................... 3 DATA SOURCES ................................................................................................................ 3 FORECAST METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 4 FORECAST FACTORS ......................................................................................................... 6 2. STUDENT INFORMATION ......................................................................................... 24 ATTENDANCE MATRIX ................................................................................................... 30 CAPTURE RATE ANALYSIS............................................................................................... 44 3. FEEDER PATTERNS ................................................................................................... 45 4. DISTRICT-WIDE STUDENT POPULATION FORECASTS ................................................ 51 FORECAST TRENDS ......................................................................................................... 51 5. ATTENDANCE AREA FORECASTS .............................................................................. 55 TREND SUMMARIES BY ELEMENTARY, MIDDLE AND HIGH SCHOOL ............................55 INDIVIDUAL ATTENDANCE AREA FORECASTS ................................................................ 58 APPENDIX A: FORECAST FACTORS BY ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE AREA .................. 379 APPENDIX B: AUSTIN MARKET ANALYSIS ................................................................... 457 APPENDIX C: CENSUS DATA ....................................................................................... 466 APPENDIX D: DATA VERIFICATION FORMS................................................................. 482 MGT.US EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary Introduction and Background Austin Independent School District has contracted with MGT to develop and analyze demographic data relevant to the district’s facility planning efforts. The scope of contracted work includes updating district mapping files, analyzing the district using the previous four years of geocoded student data files, developing, and researching pertinent demographic data in and around the district, identifying current and future residential development plans and preparing a ten-year student population forecast. The purpose of this report is to identify and inform the district of the demographic trends occurring within the community, how these trends may affect future student populations, and to assist in illustrating facility adjustments that may be necessary to accommodate the potential student population shifts, to assist the district in evaluating future site requirements and the need for potential attendance area changes. MGT, a non-biased third-party consultant, has been contracted to prepare and maintain a ten-year demographic study. In this study, MGT produced detailed neighborhood and attendance area population forecasts based on the residential address of students. MGT bases its forecasts on the belief that school facility planning is more accurate when facilities are located where the greatest number of students reside. This study is intended to help the district notice specific demographic trends that could assist them in making informed decisions regarding long- range planning efforts. The Data Sources section details how the two sources of data – geographic and non-geographic -- are collected and used in the ten-year student population forecast model. The Forecast Methodology section discusses, in detail, how the factors used in the study were calculated, and why they were used. These factors include area birthrates and their effect on incoming kindergarten classes, the effects of student mobility, student yield factors based on historic housing data and trends, and a detailed review of future residential development within the district. The Attendance Area Forecast section contains individual attendance area forecasts. The resident forecast summary offers a ten-year projection of students living within the attendance area, by grade. The enrollment forecast summary provides a ten-year projection of attendance at each school, by grade. These enrollment projections are developed by applying a pattern of transfers (in and out of a school) to the student resident forecast. Because these projections normalize policy and program choice, changes to either can greatly affect the overall trend and hence should be interpreted with those variables in mind. While reading this report, it is important to remember that it is based on data gathered at the time of the study. Due to potential population shifts, changes in development plans, fluctuating funding opportunities, and district priorities, all findings presented in this report are subject to change. PAGE 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Key Items in the District-Wide Analysis: • Declining Birth Rates: Austin ISD birth rates steadily declined from 2015 to 2020, dropping from about 12,200 to 10,350, with a brief increase in 2021–2022 before falling again in 2023. • Kindergarten Capture Rate: From 2021 to 2024, only 45–47% of children born in the district entered AISD kindergarten, mirroring earlier declines in birth rates. • Projected Enrollment Decline: AISD's total resident student population is expected to decrease by 5.3% (around 3,700 students) by 2029, with the steepest declines in 2025 and 2026. • Elementary Enrollment Trends: K–5 enrollment is projected to decline by 6.1% through 2029, largely due to lower birth rates and smaller incoming cohorts, with some temporary increases in grade 5. • Middle School Stability and Future Declines: Middle school enrollment will remain relatively stable until 2028, after which enrollment will decline as smaller cohorts reach grade 6. • High School Enrollment Dynamics: While grade 9 sees consistent enrollment gains (400–500 students), overall high school enrollment is projected to drop by 1,100 students (5.4%) by 2029. • Mobility Patterns: Areas like Reilly and Brentwood show high inward mobility, whereas neighborhoods like Travis Heights and Wooten exhibit signs of aging populations and low turnover. • Housing Development: Currently, there are 115 active or planned projects in Austin Independent School District, totaling over 22,000 units included in the forecast over the next ten years. • Grade-Level Transitions: The largest student loss occurs between grades 5 and 6, while the biggest gain happens between grades 8 and 9, indicating strong entry or retention at the start of high school. • 12th Grade Decline: 12th grade enrollment is projected to drop below 4,400 by 2027 and to 4,350 by 2029. • Long-Term Impact of Smaller Cohorts: The small kindergarten class of 2022 is expected to become a notably small 12th grade class by 2034, emphasizing how early enrollment trends affect long-term projections. 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